Salmon & Steelhead Recovery Tracker

North Umpqua (Independent Population)

Analyses of viability criteria (adult abundance, persistence, productivity, distribution, diversity and habitat) are presented for each independent population. Trends in adult abundance and habitat condition are presented for dependent populations.

Oncorhynchus kisutch

Abundance

Annual estimates of the abundance of naturally-produced spawners for each population.

Spawning Year Nat. Origin Spawners 95% Confidence Interval Abundance Goal Proportion of Goal
2016 1,148 13,500 9.0%
2015 3,012 7,000 43.0%
2014 3,979 15,400 26.0%
2013 2,774 13,500 21.0%
2012 3,134 13,500 23.0%
2011 6,020 15,400 39.0%
2010 9,397 15,400 61.0%
2009 7,720 15,400 50.0%
2008 3,438 13,500 25.0%
2007 1,410 7,000 20.0%
2006 3,000
2005 1,969
2004 3,559
2003 2,862
2002 3,368
2001 2,634
2000 1,677
1999 1,194
1998 765
1997 577
1996 1,069
1995 1,293
1994 899

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass -the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target 5 times or less in any 12-year period.

Distribution

The manner in which adults (spawners) are distributed within the freshwater portion of a population's home range.

Metrics

1. The percentage of random, spatially balanced surveys that have more than 4 wild adult spawners/mile (percent occupancy)

2. Comparison of the spatial pattern of potential spawning distribution to that observed using SVB or other spatial statistics.

Spawning Year Sites Occupied Sites Total Percent Occupied Occupancy Goal
2014 1 1 100% 77%
2013 0 6 0% 77%
2011 13 36 36% 77%
2010 7 12 58% 77%
2009 17 31 55% 77%
2008 7 19 37% 77%
2007 10 29 34% 77%
2006 5 8 63%
2005 2 4 50%

Evaluation Thresholds

Metric 1

Pass - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target five times or less in any 12-year period.

Metric 2

Pass - the observed regularity ratio is not significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed regularity ratio is significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Diversity
  • 2007
    fail

Within-population diversity is the result of phenotypic differences among individuals. These differences provide the flexibility of the population as a whole to respond successfully to short-term environmental variations. They are also the basis by which populations are able to adapt and evolve as conditions within their home range go through changes that are more permanent.

Metric

The average of the 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance for each independent population, as forecast from a population viability model.

Analysis Year Harmonic Mean Goal
2007 252 1,200

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is greater than 1,200.

Fail - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is less than or equal to 1,200.

Time Period Category Comment
2007 fail Goal met 0 of 1 years

Habitat

The amount of available high quality habitat for all freshwater life stages in each independent population, excluding the lakes populations.

Habitat condition is evaluated using population specific winter habitat surveys in the range of coho salmon. These surveys began in 2007 with the goal of surveying each independent population or dependent population group once every 5 years. Not all populations in the Coast Coho ESU have been surveyed for habitat at this time therefore some populations will display no habitat data.

Survey Year Miles Current 95% Confidence Interval Miles Goal Percent of Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion, the miles of high quality habitat (i.e. capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) equals or exceeds the population-specific goals.

Persistence
  • 2007
    fail

The forecast probability of persistence for each independent population based on results from population viability analysis (PVA) models.

Analysis Year Average Probability Goal
2007 0.976 0.99

Discussion and Rationale

A persistence criterion of a 99% or greater probability of persistence significantly increases the likelihood that the ESU will remain viable under extreme marine survival conditions while providing substantial environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. Future analyses will be based on an average persistence value from the four PVA models developed by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Analysis

Because of the uncertainty of demographic effects at low population size, the TRT used two levels of "quasi-extinction" (1 and 50) to model persistence of the populations.

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion it must have an average probability of persistence of 0.99 or greater as estimated by the four PVA models used by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Time Period Category Comment
2007 fail Goal met 0 of 1 years

Productivity

Annual estimates of the number of naturally produced recruits (progeny) per spawner (parent) (R/S) in the population.

Spawning Year R/S
2016 0.37
2015 0.98
2014 0.74
2013 0.33
2012 0.46
2011 1.77
2010 2.45
2009 0.84
2008 0.34
2007 0.16
2006 0.28
2005 0.20
2004 0.23
2003 0.34
2002 1.12
2001 0.66
2000 0.89
1999 0.27
1998 0.27
1997 0.34

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - Over a 12-year period, R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically greater than or equal to 1.0.

Fail - Over a 12-year period R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically less than 1.0.