Salmon & Steelhead Recovery Tracker

South Umpqua (Independent Population)

Analyses of viability criteria (adult abundance, persistence, productivity, distribution, diversity and habitat) are presented for each independent population. Trends in adult abundance and habitat condition are presented for dependent populations.

Oncorhynchus kisutch

Abundance

Annual estimates of the abundance of naturally-produced spawners for each population.

Spawning Year Nat. Origin Spawners 95% Confidence Interval Abundance Goal Proportion of Goal
2016 765 705 77,200 1.0%
2015 5,878 4,261 40,000 15.0%
2014 11,412 4,211 88,200 13.0%
2013 12,178 8,431 77,200 16.0%
2012 11,636 7,579 77,200 15.0%
2011 49,958 29,652 88,200 57.0%
2010 24,983 9,871 88,200 28.0%
2009 15,944 7,137 88,200 18.0%
2008 20,935 12,689 77,200 27.0%
2007 4,549 3,150 40,000 11.0%
2006 2,246 1,366
2005 14,364 6,034
2004 10,997 4,740
2003 4,337
2002 10,517
2001 11,871
2000 2,581
1999 3,011
1998 3,177
1997 937
1996 7,040
1995 4,715
1994 1,081

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass -the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target 5 times or less in any 12-year period.

Distribution

The manner in which adults (spawners) are distributed within the freshwater portion of a population's home range.

Metrics

1. The percentage of random, spatially balanced surveys that have more than 4 wild adult spawners/mile (percent occupancy)

2. Comparison of the spatial pattern of potential spawning distribution to that observed using SVB or other spatial statistics.

Spawning Year Sites Occupied Sites Total Percent Occupied Occupancy Goal
2016 1 9 11% 77%
2015 9 19 47% 77%
2014 14 17 82% 77%
2013 14 30 47% 77%
2012 12 22 55% 77%
2011 21 27 78% 77%
2010 18 27 67% 77%
2009 17 29 59% 77%
2008 6 11 55% 77%
2007 6 24 25% 77%
2006 3 11 27%
2005 12 18 67%
2004 30 39 77%
2003 17 35 49%
2002 24 43 56%
2001 20 38 53%
2000 9 43 21%
1999 16 49 33%
1998 10 35 29%

Evaluation Thresholds

Metric 1

Pass - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target five times or less in any 12-year period.

Metric 2

Pass - the observed regularity ratio is not significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed regularity ratio is significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Diversity
  • 2007
    pass

Within-population diversity is the result of phenotypic differences among individuals. These differences provide the flexibility of the population as a whole to respond successfully to short-term environmental variations. They are also the basis by which populations are able to adapt and evolve as conditions within their home range go through changes that are more permanent.

Metric

The average of the 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance for each independent population, as forecast from a population viability model.

Analysis Year Harmonic Mean Goal
2007 3,319 1,200

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is greater than 1,200.

Fail - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is less than or equal to 1,200.

Time Period Category Comment
2007 pass Goal met 1 of 1 years

Habitat
  • 2007
    fail

The amount of available high quality habitat for all freshwater life stages in each independent population, excluding the lakes populations.

Habitat condition is evaluated using population specific winter habitat surveys in the range of coho salmon. These surveys began in 2007 with the goal of surveying each independent population or dependent population group once every 5 years. Not all populations in the Coast Coho ESU have been surveyed for habitat at this time therefore some populations will display no habitat data.

Survey Year Miles Current 95% Confidence Interval Miles Goal Percent of Goal
2007 96.0 106.0 416 23.1%

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion, the miles of high quality habitat (i.e. capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) equals or exceeds the population-specific goals.

Time Period Category Comment
2007 fail Goal met 0 of 1 years

Persistence
  • 2007
    pass

The forecast probability of persistence for each independent population based on results from population viability analysis (PVA) models.

Analysis Year Average Probability Goal
2007 0.997 0.99

Discussion and Rationale

A persistence criterion of a 99% or greater probability of persistence significantly increases the likelihood that the ESU will remain viable under extreme marine survival conditions while providing substantial environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. Future analyses will be based on an average persistence value from the four PVA models developed by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Analysis

Because of the uncertainty of demographic effects at low population size, the TRT used two levels of "quasi-extinction" (1 and 50) to model persistence of the populations.

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion it must have an average probability of persistence of 0.99 or greater as estimated by the four PVA models used by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Time Period Category Comment
2007 pass Goal met 1 of 1 years

Productivity

Annual estimates of the number of naturally produced recruits (progeny) per spawner (parent) (R/S) in the population.

Spawning Year R/S
2016 0.07
2015 0.62
2014 0.26
2013 0.52
2012 0.82
2011 2.51
2010 4.96
2009 7.03
2008 1.49
2007 0.45
2006 0.56
2005 1.43
2004 0.89
2003 1.62
2002 3.45
2001 2.67
2000 2.40
1999 0.23
1998 0.65
1997 0.41

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - Over a 12-year period, R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically greater than or equal to 1.0.

Fail - Over a 12-year period R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically less than 1.0.